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Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori
JAEA-Review 2021-076, 108 Pages, 2022/03
JAEA-Review-2021-076.pdf:3.89MB
In order to find ways to lead the denuclearization successfully, effectively, and efficiently in the future, "Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearization" has been conducted since 2018. This report covers the first half of the research, namely "Factor analysis for denuclearization", summarizing the results of the case study and factor analysis of denuclearization. First, South Africa, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, North Korea, Iran and Syria were selected as the initial research target countries, and the history of nuclear development as well as characteristics of denuclearization in each country were investigated and analyzed. Next, in order to consider the measures for the international community to lead the denuclearization of the target countries, eight main denuclearization factors ((1) Motivation for nuclear development, (2) Internal and external situation at the time of the denuclearization, (3) Progress of nuclear development, (4) Effects of sanctions, (5) International framework for denuclearization, (6) Incentives for denuclearization, (7) Denuclearization method, (8) Verification method/verifier) were found out. Finally, the contents of each denuclearization factor from (1) to (8)) in above target countries except Syria were analyzed, together with whether each factor was effective for denuclearization or not. In addition, in order to lead denuclearization effectively and efficiently, what should be done in relation to the eight factors were considered. These results are expected to serve as a basis for research on the technological process of denuclearization, and to help considering the way to accomplish denuclearization.
Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Suda, Kazunori
Dai-42-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 4 Pages, 2021/11
no abstracts in English
Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori
Dai-41-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 4 Pages, 2020/11
no abstracts in English
Tamai, Hiroshi; Shimizu, Ryo; Tazaki, Makiko; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori
Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Dai-40-Kai Nenji Taikai Puroshideingusushu, p.89 - 92, 2019/11
Libya's denuclearisation, named "the Libya model", is regarded as one of good practices in cooperation of the international community and measures that have a sense of speed with the countries and institutions involved. Success factors of the denuclearisation are the Libya's relatively low technological progress despite the procurement of extensive nuclear materials and components due to the delay of detecting the nuclear programme, prompt implementation with the close collaboration of countries concerned, and Libya's cooperation facing to the economic sanctions and the regime collapse by the Iraq war. Precious lessons will be learned towards the prevention and the denuclearisation in other countries.